Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. 25 Running Backs Overrated Players 10 Quarterbacks 12 Tight Ends 23 Wide Receivers 25 Running Backs Deep Sleepers 9 Quarterbacks 11 Tight Ends 15 Wide Receivers 13 Running Backs The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Jacobs could easily wind up as a player who does a lot of work between the 20s with no meaningful fantasy production. In 2020, James Conner ranked 36th and Benny Snell ranked 54th in expected yards-per-carry out of 55 qualifiers, a sign of a weak offensive line and scheme. Pittsburghs front five looks nothing like last years group. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. There are too many risk factors to comfortably draft Ekeler as a No. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? Victoria Geary: Sanders has talent and breakaway ability, but he may not garner a large enough workload to be worth his ADP this season. But when we look closer, The Bus only averages 1,050 rushing yards per year and 7 touchdowns, far from elite stats. Can he still be fantasy-relevant? The Top Ten. His production waned down the stretch in Carolina last year, and when was the last time we cared about an Atlanta running back in fantasy football anyway? Give me Chris Carson or Josh Jacobs in a similar draft range with stronger probabilities to hit as a top-10 option. Barkley is a workhorse. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. Unless his ADP falls a bit, he's a pass where he's being drafted right now. Tatum Bell isn't the only Lions running back of the 2000s to get snakebitten. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. J.D. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2022 NFL draft, along with two overrated back based on this model: ESPN + Lets take a look at the average Jerome Bettis season: 277 carries, 1051 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. There is no other way to explain a mid-range RB3 price when he is in one of the worst possible situations in Houston. In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. Phil Alexander: The epic stretch-run that led Montgomery to an RB4 finish in 2020 came with Tarik Cohen sidelined and against the defenses of Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, respectively. Weve seen flashes of Raheem Mostert over the last couple of years feasting in this offense, but its sporadic and challenging to predict. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. Running back Chris Wells of the Arizona Cardinals was a first-round draft pick, 31st overall, in 2009 who always seemed to be on the injured list year after year. With talented guys like Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. History and time have helped make Perry one of the most overrated defensive players of all time. Thats the first thing we notice. His value is trending in the wrong direction. NFL's 5 Most Overrated Running Backs No Name August 6, 2011 Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. Gibson plays on a bad offense, has rushing competition from Robinson, and receiving competition from McKissic. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Compared to Jim Brown (5.2 YPC), Larry Csonka (4.3 YPC), and Earl Campbell (4.3 YPC). Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB13. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB22. The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Football Running Backs in 2019. This three-headed committee with a healthy Jones is bad news for Fournette and means he is way overvalued at current ADP. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. Search my work, about me, and maybe -if I ever get around to it - my blog. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. At others, he made mistakes and was underused. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. 3 back on the depth chart before the first preseason game. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB7. He's a strong talent with some flaws with a better all-around back ahead of him. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. His career YPC was 3.9. only site on the planet. Curtis Martin 11. My, my, how the game has changed. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was still in line to start after he took a pay cut to stay with the Texans, but then the team added Phillip Lindsay after he and the Broncos parted ways, which embroils Johnson in a frustrating committee backfield in an offense that is likely to be among the league's worst. However, the floor is lower than the surrounding running backs in cost. Barry Sanders 3. So what's the concern? James is the more physically gifted player. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Davis was great in relief of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last year, but he got tired quickly. Andy Hicks: D'Andre Swift had a patchy rookie season. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. 21 RB Sleepers. Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time by Team By Paul Ladewski, updated on September 10, 2021 Matt York / AP Photo Don't you just love it that sports media are so quick to hype athletes as the biggest and the best. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. Green Bay seems to like A.J. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Lambertville, Michigan 48144. most overrated running backs of all time(734) 854-2000 Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. The 2021 season will either change from the norm of what we have seen from Edmonds in the past or a new role where he flourishes with an increase in volume. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. 20 20. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Malcolm Brown is one of the least-sexy names in fantasy football, but NFL teams sure seem to love him. Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football. In addition, Antonio Gibson finished the year banged up and ceding snaps to McKissic. The only other way for one of them to achieve high-end RB1 value would be an injury that allows the other to see an increased workload. The Top Ten. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs, or one of them would have to get injured to allow the other to see an increased workload. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? His knee injury involved multiple ligament tears, and the Giants are likely to bring him along slowly. 1 cornerstone. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats. Flick's Package Liquor Inc. PO Box 221 3320 Sterns Rd. Ty Johnson has strong athleticism and played over Carter in the first week of the preseason, and La'Mical Perine has a similar profile to Carter. While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. Crimson Tide skill players have been pretty good coming into the NFL recently, and Robinson's early start to camp has been generating buzz. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. 5. Sigmund Bloom: Not that the Texans offense was anything you wanted to go near in fantasy drafts in the first place, but Johnson's ADP needs to adjust by multiple rounds to the news that he will be sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II and no longer in the lead back role. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. We've seen J.D. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. NFL career: 1988-91, all with Cincinnati Bengals (4 seasons) Statistics/16 games: 659.5 rush yards/4.6 yards per . . Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years. On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. That is still great, but not quite as good as many people have him ranked. Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. Davis has changed teams five times in the last three seasons. The Ravens have had the #1 rushing offense in the league for the last two years straight but have finished 31st overall in total running back targets in that same time span. Along with McKissic, Gibson will have to contend with Brian Robinson Jr, a rookie from Alabama. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Jim Brown Jim Brown spent a little less than a decade playing for the Cleveland Browns between 1957 and 1965, but that was enough time to prove he's likely the greatest running back to ever play the game and one of the greatest NFL players of all time. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. Jan 26 . Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. I was reading an article the other day about the greatest power backs of all time and Jerome Bettis was third on the list (right behind Jim Brown and Larry Csonka and right ahead of Earl Campbell). The current regime did not select Robinson. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. History has shown us that Harris's ADP will likely move into Round 2 or 3 as the next few months pass. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency.
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