Contributors wanted Twitter Twitter @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. What are your thoughts on this article? So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Nobody forgot about politics.". Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Outstanding. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Not anymore. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Seriously. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Team up with others in your region, and help out by We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. In communities . Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . 10. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. In their . Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Until this year. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Yes, another Hillsborough! For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Election night is going to be information overload. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. our Gitlab account where you can "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. All rights reserved. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. That's 14 in a row. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. It gets a lot more interesting. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Arapahoe County. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Their hopes are real. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans.